Morocco and Algeria: A Strategic Rivalry Shaping the Maghreb

Abstract

Since the end of the Cold War, the Morocco-Algeria rivalry has remained one of the most enduring and consequential fault lines in North African geopolitics. Despite repeated diplomatic freezes, military posturing, and ideological divergence, neither state has crossed the threshold into direct confrontation. This article argues that the bilateral standoff is shaped by a form of strategic rigidity, as both sides sustain deterrence through militarisation, external alignments, and symbolic red lines (particularly surrounding the Western Sahara dispute) without committing to escalation. Drawing on regional security theory, the analysis demonstrates how decades of arms racing, diplomatic isolation, and mutually exclusive foreign policy models have produced a frozen conflict. However, signs of strategic recalibration (such as Algeria’s constitutional shift of military deployment and Morocco’s regional soft power offensive) suggest a cautious evolution in both of the states’ posture. The findings highlight how entrenched rivalries cannot be managed, let alone resolved, without first addressing core disputes and balancing domestic legitimacy with regional pragmatism. Understanding this dynamic is essential to assess the prospects of stability, cooperation or renewed escalation in the Maghreb.    

Introduction 

Morocco and Algeria loom large over the Maghreb, a region defined not only by geography but by the weight of history, identity, and ambition. With their sizable populations, strategic locations, and robust economies, the two nations dominate a political landscape otherwise marked by smaller, more fragmented neighbours. Often described as a bipolar regional order, Morocco and Algeria contend (sometimes quietly, sometimes overtly) for primacy in North Africa. Yet this rivalry plays out in the absence of the usual instruments of statecraft, as there are no functioning diplomatic ties nor open trade borders and the rivalry is characterised by informal conflict. The dream of a unified Maghreb (economically integrated and politically coordinated) remains distant, held hostage by suspicion and competition. 

At the heart of this standoff lies a persistent cold war dynamic. For decades, Rabat and Algiers have circled one another with distrust, investing in their military arsenals and aligning with divergent global powers. Morocco, steeped in a long-standing alliance with the West (particularly the United States, with which it has maintained a diplomatic relationship since 1786), presents itself as a model of stability and transatlanticism (Jowiya, 2013). Algeria, by contrast, defines its geopolitical identity through the legacy of its anticolonial struggle, leaning toward Russia and the principles of the Non-Aligned Movement (Chikhaoui, 2022). But this is not an isolated feud, as the Morocco-Algeria rivalry reverberates far beyond North Africa. It intersects with Europe’s energy calculus, challenges American strategic planning in the Mediterranean, and complicates security cooperation in the broader Middle East. At stake is not just the influence both countries seek to exert within the region, but also the viability of multilateralism in a strategically vital corridor. 

What follows is a closer look at the anatomy of this rivalry, including its historical roots, the ongoing military arms race, divergent foreign policy strategies, and the role of outside powers. A careful consideration follows, examining the risks ahead and the need for renewed diplomatic engagement. At the heart of the issue lies a belligerent standstill (an entrenched conflict marked by hostility without direct warfare) that continues to destabilise the region. This article aims to understand and characterise this deadlock in order to inform more effective policy recommendations for de-escalation and regional cooperation.

Colonial Shadows and the Genesis of Rivalry

The enduring rivalry between Morocco and Algeria is less a product of recent diplomacy than the deep imprint of a history impacted by colonial boundaries, war, and decades of mutual distrust. Morocco emerged from French and Spanish colonial rule in 1956 with its monarchy intact and a strategic interest in restoring its pre-colonial borders (Lounnas & Messari, 2018). Algeria’s trajectory was far more harrowing as it was colonised by France in 1830 and treated not as a protectorate but as an extension of French territory (Lawrence, 2016). Algeria secured its independence after a devastating eight-year war, a struggle that not only birthed a fiercely republican state but also instilled a deeply rooted ethos of anti-colonial sovereignty, defining principles that would soon collide with Morocco’s regional ambitions (Calçada, 2012). In 1963, barely a year after Algeria’s independence, tensions rose into open conflict during the Sand War. Moroccan troops crossed into Algeria, seeking to reclaim areas in Tindouf and Bechar, territories Rabat considered historically Moroccan (International Crisis Group, 2024). A ceasefire was reached in early 1964, but the war generated lasting suspicion, shaping bilateral relations for decades to come.  

Yet it was not the Sand War, but the fate of Western Sahara that would become the defining fracture. When Spain withdrew in 1975, Morocco swiftly annexed the territory, branding it the “Southern Provinces” (International Crisis Group, 2024). Algeria, invoking its colonial doctrine, threw its weight behind the Polisario Front, a guerrilla movement demanding self-determination for the Sahrawis (an ethnic group native to Western Sahara and laying claim to that territory). Thus began the Western Sahara War, a 16-year struggle between Moroccan forces and the Polisario, the group backed, financed and sheltered by Algiers. For Morocco, Western Sahara offered not only historical symbolism but also tangible assets such as phosphate wealth, fishing grounds, and a critical Atlantic coastline (White, 2015). For Algeria, the annexation was unacceptable, so supporting the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic became both an ideological commitment and a strategic hedge against Moroccan expansionism (Dworkin, 2022). Although a ceasefire was reached in 1991 along with the promise of a referendum, Sahrawi independence has yet to be concluded (Lovatt & Mundy, 2021). Western Sahara’s status remains unsolved, and Algiers continues to host both the Polisario leadership and tens of thousands of Sahrawi refugees. This enduring arrangement serves not only as a humanitarian commitment but also as a clear geopolitical signal of Algeria’s long-standing position in the conflict. This intractable dispute transformed the Morocco-Algeria relationship into a zero-sum equation, where cooperation is often interpreted as a concession, and the status quo as a strategic loss. 

Diplomatic relations have periodically frozen in the wake of new provocations. In 1994, following a terrorist attack in Marrakech, which Morocco partly blamed on Algerian operatives, Rabat imposed visa restrictions. Algiers retaliated by closing the land border, an act that remains in place to this day, symbolising the unyielding deadlock between the two states (Ould Khettab, 2014). Regional initiatives such as the Arab Maghreb Union have repeatedly faltered on this impasse, unable to bridge the ideological divide. More recently, external alignments have deepened the rift. In 2020, Morocco normalised relations with Israel through the US-brokered Abraham Accords (US Embassy in Israel, 2020). In return, Washington officially recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara, prompting diplomatic regional upheaval and a red line crossed for Algiers. Algeria, deeply pro-Palestinian and wary of Israeli influence in North Africa, denounced the move as a betrayal. Tensions escalated quickly, and Algiers accused Morocco of sponsoring separatist movements within its own territory, condemning its alliance with what it called “the Zionist entity” (International Crisis Group, 2024). In August 2021, Algeria severed diplomatic ties entirely, marking the lowest point in bilateral relations in decades (Ould Ahmed, 2021). 

Security in the Balance: The Arms Race Between Morocco and Algeria 

The depth of the Morocco-Algeria rivalry is more visible than in the escalating military buildup that has come to define their bilateral relationship. Locked in a spiral of mutual suspicion, both states have poured billions into modernising their armed forces, not in pursuit of war but in a bid to deter it. Yet this very logic has produced a security dilemma, where what one side may deem a defensive upgrade, the other may perceive as a potential threat, triggering a reaction in kind (Benantar, 2024). Over time, this action-reaction dynamic has hardened into a sustained armed race, one that neither side can easily halt without feeling strategically vulnerable. Since the 1960s, both governments, wary of falling behind, have made long-term assumptions based on worst-case scenarios. Each budget increase, every weapons acquisition, is justified by the need to preserve balance, but in practice, these moves have deepened the very insecurity they were meant to prevent. As a self-reinforcing cycle, the security dilemma posits that no state can enhance its own security without simultaneously diminishing the perceived security of the other. 

Algeria has long held the upper hand in absolute spending power, thanks to its substantial hydrocarbon revenues (Albinyana, 2025). In 2022, Algiers allocated roughly 6.5% of its GDP to defence, one of the highest ratios globally. In 2023, that figure soared to 8%, reflecting a dramatic 25% increase year-on-year, signalling a determination to maintain military dominance (Statista, 2025). That surge pushed Algeria’s defence spending to around 23 billion. Morocco, though lacking Algeria’s oil wealth, has steadily closed the gap. With a defence budget that climbed to approximately 5.5 billion in 2024, Rabat has prioritised qualitative over quantitative gains in military assets (Alaoui, 2024). Together, the two countries account for around 90% of all military spending in North Africa, effectively turning the region’s security dynamics into a duopoly. Together they represent around half of Africa’s total arms imports (Military Africa, 2025). Algeria, with its longstanding military partnership with Russia, continues to source the bulk of its arsenal from Moscow. It operates advanced T-90 tanks, Su-30MKA fighters tailored for Algerian needs, and powerful air defence systems like the S-300 and newer S-400 (Lansing Institute, 2025). Morocco, by contrast, has turned westward, deepening its defence ties with the United States and Gulf allies. This bifurcation in alliances (Algeria’s eastward tilt and Morocco’s western orientation) has not only entrenched their arms race but also internationalised their rivalry, transforming North Africa into a strategic fault line between competing global defence ecosystems.

Strategic Visions in Contrast: Morocco’s Soft Power Diplomacy vs Algeria’s Doctrine of Non-Interference 

Beyond the arena of military rivalry, Morocco and Algeria engage in a more subtle, yet equally consequential contest for regional influence; one defined not by tanks or aircraft, but by competing foreign policy paradigms. At the heart of this rivalry lies a fundamental divergence in worldview. Morocco, under King Mohammed VI, has embraced a model of outward engagement, projecting soft power across Africa through economic diplomacy, cultural influence, and strategic connectivity. Algeria, by contrast, has long based its foreign policy on principles of sovereignty, non-alignment, and non-intervention, a legacy of its revolutionary past. 

Morocco’s diplomatic posture is assertively pragmatic and international. Over the past decade, Rabat has repositioned itself as a key player in African affairs, leveraging its relative political stability and growing economic footprint to build networks of influence. A defining moment in this strategic shift came in 2017, when Morocco rejoined the African Union after more than three decades of absence. This marked a symbolic return, underscoring its readiness to reengage with continental politics despite the ongoing friction over Western Sahara (Mohamed, 2017). Since then, Morocco has cultivated a reputation as a bridge between Europe and Africa, South and North, and Muslim and Western. The crown’s foreign policy toolbox is broad, as it includes trade agreements, religious diplomacy (notably through the training of imams in the Maliki Sunni tradition), educational exchanges, and high-profile infrastructure investments (Tadlaoui, 2015). One recent example of this is the “Atlantic Africa” initiative launched in 2023, a project designed to link landlocked Sahelian states to Atlantic trade corridors via Moroccan-built logistics infrastructure (Omary & El‑Khoury, 2024). This initiative has significantly expanded Morocco’s regional influence by positioning it as a gateway between the Sahel and global markets, deepening its economic and diplomatic ties with West African partners. 

Algeria, by contrast, has historically pursued a more cautious and ideologically principled foreign policy, one shaped by its war of liberation and rooted in doctrines of anti-colonial sovereignty and strategic restraint. Since independence, Algerian diplomacy has consistently promoted non-interference in domestic affairs, territorial integrity, and support for liberation movements (Porter, 2015). This posture allowed Algiers to project itself as a neutral mediator in international conflicts while preserving a hard line against foreign involvement. For decades, Algeria declined to deploy its military abroad and refused to host foreign bases (practices banned in its constitution until recently) (Goumrassa, 2020). However, Algeria’s traditional model has begun to show signs of strategic recalibration. In 2020, a constitutional amendment formally authorised the Algerian military to participate in international peacekeeping missions under UN or African Union mandates, marking a shift from absolute non-intervention (Blidi, 2020). This legal opening reflects Algiers’ growing awareness of the threats posed by regional instability in the Sahel, terrorist spillover, and diplomatic advances Morocco has made across Africa. Nevertheless, the shift remains conservative in scope, as Algeria continues to react defensively to Morocco’s initiatives rather than setting its own proactive regional agenda. When Morocco deepened ties across the Sahel, Algeria responded not by expanding its continental engagement but by forming a narrower bloc with Tunisia and Libya, an act of deliberate exclusion of Morocco (El Yaaqoubi, 2024). 

Global Stakes in a Regional Rivalry: External Alliances and Economic Interests

The Morocco-Algeria rivalry does not unfold in isolation; it is embedded within a broader geopolitical competition shaped by international alignments and economic interests. External powers (from the United States and Europe to Russia, China, and the Gulf States) have become entangled in North Africa’s balance of power, each pursuing strategic gains while navigating the region’s political fault lines. 

The United States and the European Union maintain relations with both Rabat and Algiers but show a clear strategic preference toward Morocco (Fernandez-Molina, 2024). Washington designates Morocco as a major non-NATO ally, holds joint military exercises, and in 2019 recognised Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara in exchange for Rabat’s diplomatic normalisation with Israel; a landmark move that elevated Morocco’s international standing while deepening Algeria’s isolation (Africa Confidential, 2025). Meanwhile, Europe’s calculus is shaped by energy dependency and migration management. Algeria supplies critical gas flows, especially to Italy, while Morocco is viewed as a stable partner for trade and counter terrorism (Cimmino, 2023).

Russia and China exploit the rivalry differently. Moscow leans on its Cold War era alliance with Algeria, which remains its top arms client in Africa and a key diplomatic partner. Algiers offers Moscow strategic access and abstains from criticising its global actions, while in return gaining military hardware and UN support (Zoubir, 2024). Morocco, by contrast, orients itself firmly toward NATO powers, even militarily aiding Ukraine in 2023 (Kirichenko, 2022). China, meanwhile, fraternises with both sides, maintaining strong infrastructure and energy ties with Algeria while also expanding investment in Moroccan manufacturing and logistics. Additionally, both states participate in Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative, but Morocco’s more liberal economy and Atlantic connectivity give it an edge as a gateway to West Africa (Jackson, 2024). 

In the Arab World, Morocco enjoys strong backing from Gulf monarchies like the UAE and Saudi Arabia, particularly since its normalisation with Israel (Daoudie, 2025). These states have invested heavily in Moroccan infrastructure and even opened consulates in Western Sahara. Algeria, conversely, has doubled down on its traditional pan-Arab and pro-Palestinian stance (Middle East Monitor, 2025). 

Conclusion: Between Stalemate and Possibility

The Morocco-Algeria rivalry remains the central axis of Maghrebian geopolitics, a conflict shaped by colonial legacies, hardened by territorial disputes, and sustained by opposing strategic visions. Decades of mistrust have produced a militarised standoff and a frozen diplomatic landscape. 

The consequences of this rivalry are profound. The closure of land borders has crippled trade and undermined economic integration, preventing the realisation of a common Maghreb market that would boost collective GDP and attract foreign investment. Diplomatic paralysis has hampered the effectiveness of regional organisations like the Arab Maghreb Union, rendering cooperation on shared challenges (such as transnational terrorism, irregular migration, and climate vulnerability) nearly impossible. At a societal level, the conflict fuels nationalist rhetoric, marginalises dissenting voices, and sustains governance models that prioritise regime survival over regional cohesion. Most importantly, the zero-sum logic of the rivalry reinforces polarisation across North Africa and impedes the emergence of cooperative security architecture in the Mediterranean Sahel corridor. 

Yet the future is not foreclosed. There are cautious signals (such as Algeria’s constitutional shift on military engagement and Morocco’s expanding regional partnerships) that suggest space for rethinking entrenched positions. But ultimately, no rapprochement can be sustained without addressing the core dispute on the status of Western Sahara. Any lasting solution must navigate Morocco’s insistence on sovereignty and Algeria’s long-standing support for self-determination. Without a credible and balanced diplomatic framework to mediate this issue, the Maghreb will remain locked in a cold conflict. Understanding this dynamic is essential for those seeking to move the region from rivalry to resolution. 

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