Election Under Siege: The Struggle for Moldova’s European Dream

Abstract

In the 2024 presidential elections and EU referendum, Moldova reaffirmed its pro-European stance, amid significant Russian interference. President Maia Sandu secured a second term against Russia-backed Alexandr Stoianoglo, while 50.46% of voters supported joining the EU (Rainsford, 2024).

Despite historical ties to both Romania and Russia, Moldova has pursued EU integration, culminating in official accession talks beginning in June 2024. However, Russian influence remains strong, especially in the separatist region of Transnistria (Sukhopara et al., 2024).

Sandu’s victory strengthens EU integration efforts, but challenges like political corruption, judicial reform, and societal polarization remain. The 2025 parliamentary elections will be crucial, with Russia expected to continue its attempts to sway Moldova off its European path (Sauer, 2024).

1. Introduction

The presidential elections in conjunction with the referendum on joining the EU in Moldova took place on October 20, 2024, with a second round on November 3. Incumbent president Maia Sandu, a strong advocate for the pro-European movement, faced off against Alexandr Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor and Russia-backed candidate. In a closely watched run-off, Sandu emerged victorious, securing her second (and final) term (Sauer, 2024).

These elections together with the EU referendum were marked by significant concerns over alleged Russian interference and highlighted Moldova’s ongoing struggle to realize its European aspirations, even though the European Union has provided substantial support and assistance to help achieve that dream. The critical question remains: Will Moldova’s European dream become a  reality, or will Moldova, like Georgia, continue to face the shadow of Russian influence?

To fully understand the importance of the situation, we must examine Moldova’s history, Russia’s persistent attempts to maintain control over the country’s internal affairs, and the growing pro-European sentiment, supported by EU financial aid and institutional backing (Council of the European Union, 2024). It’s also of utmost importance to look at what will happen now, how Sandu will address the domestic challenges and look into the government elections in autumn 2025 as a critical point (Rainsford, 2024). Understanding these elements, along with the events of this crucial election and referendum, will shed light on the country’s ongoing battle for its future.

2. Historical Context

From Moldova’s annexation to Tsarist Russia and renaming of Bessarabia in 1812, to is declaration of independence on August 27, 1991, Moldova was a part of the USSR, apart from  the 22 years (from 1918 to 1940) in which it  was part of the Kingdom of Romania. This influence created a dividing line between Moldova’s inhabitants, driven mainly by language, which became apparent in the election results and the tension over the question of joining the EU or not.

Moldova has a Romanian-speaking majority, accounting for 80% of its population if the separatist Transnistrian region is excluded. Despite this, Moldova remains a former Soviet republic, and its eastern regions, including Transnistria, hold significant pro-Moscow sentiments. Russian troops have maintained a presence in Transnistria since the disintegration of the USSR, serving as a constant reminder of Russia’s continued influence in the region. (Sukhopara et al., 2024). This Russian footprint has symbolized an ongoing struggle for Moldova’s sovereignty and independent direction.

As any former Soviet state, the transition from a controlled economy to a free market has been hard, especially because the main economic output in the region was agricultural and most of Moldova’s industry was in Transnistria. To help with these challenges, Moldova received help from the EU in 1991 through the TACIS (Technical Assistance to the Commonwealth of Independent States) and through the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP), strengthening the EU’s engagement with Moldova and making the first steps for the country to enter the EU’s sphere of influence (Sukhopara et al., 2024).

Since the early 2000s, Moldova has aimed to join the European Union, with integration efforts intensifying after the 2009 “Twitter Revolution,” pushing pro-European forces into power (Kallmer, 2024). This movement played a key role in organizing and spreading awareness of the demonstrations against alleged election fraud, marking one of the earliest instances of social media being leveraged for political mobilization on a large scale (Kallmer, 2024).

 The signing of the 2014 Association Agreement with the EU, which included a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), marked a significant step forward. Moldova’s path toward EU integration accelerated in the context of the ongoing war in Ukraine, which reshaped regional geopolitics and underscored the urgency of securing stronger ties with the European Union. In December 2023, the European Council decided to open accession negotiations, a major milestone reflecting Moldova’s long-standing efforts toward integration. This followed Moldova’s designation as an EU candidate country in June 2022. The culmination of these efforts came on June 25, 2024, when official accession negotiations began during the first Intergovernmental Conference, marking a pivotal moment in Moldova’s European aspirations (Clej, 2024).

3. The first round and the EU referendum

A critical point regarding the accession of Moldova into the EU was the recent presidential elections held together with the EU referendum, as they would either be a step forward towards EU integration or back into Russian influence. With the Georgia “scandal” so recent, pro-EU politicians in Moldova started addressing the topic of possible Russian interference in their elections and in the EU referendum, either by spreading misinformation, by cyberattacks or by direct interference. During the first round of the presidential elections, some screenshots from Telegram were leaked as evidence of an attempt to buy pro-Russian votes by fugitive oligarch Shor – now living in Moscow – asking people to vote for Staoianoglo. “Criminal networks have shown that they are stronger on the technological front than state institutions,” analyst Igor Boțan, from the think tank ADEPT, told Kyiv Independent. (Erizanu, 2024)

On the one hand, the attempts of Russian interference didn’t work in the EU referendum where 50,46% of Moldovans voted in favour of joining the EU. Nevertheless, Sandu denounced the narrow result pointing at foreign interference (without referring to Russia explicitly) and claiming it was an “unprecedented assault on democracy” (Rainsford, 2024). On the other hand, these efforts by pro-Russian supporters had an effect on the presidential elections, giving a solid 26% of the votes to Aleksandr Stoianoglo, despite the opinion polls predicting him getting 9-11%. This huge increase in votes for the pro-Russian candidate prevented Sandu from getting the 50% she needed, keeping her at 42,4%. When asked about it she declared that they had clear evidence that 300,000 votes were bought, and that Moldova’s elections were facing “a fraud of unprecedented scale” (Kirby, 2024b).

In a press release after the elections, High Representative Josep Borell, on behalf of the European Union, welcomed the outcome of the referendum as a historical choice and a step forward towards future EU accession, reflecting the aspirations for “a peaceful, independent, stable, democratic, and prosperous Moldova”. He also condemned “the unprecedented malign interference by Russia into Moldova’s presidential elections and constitutional referendum”, stating that the EU will continue its support toward the Republic of Moldova (Council of the European Union, 2024). This endorsement by the EU, which also clearly points  to Russia’s interference, gave strength to Maia Sandu, while delegitimising Alexandr Stoianoglo’s results, and gave hope to the Moldovan citizens before the second round of the presidential elections that were held on November 3.

After a campaign tainted by widespread and credible allegations of massive interference by Russia and pro-Russian proxies, Moldova’s incumbent president, Maia Sandu, secured another term in the second round of presidential elections with 55% of the vote, achieving a higher voter turnout than in the first round (Kirby, 2024b). Efforts by her party to delegitimise Stoianoglo in response to the Russian meddling during the initial round, followed by strong EU statements, mobilized additional support for the pro-EU movement. Meanwhile, pro-Moscow efforts that attempted to exploit fears of being dragged into Russia’s war against Ukraine ultimately failed to gain traction in the decisive second round, where Moldova decided to move forward.

In her victory speech, Maia Sandu expressed gratitude to the Moldovan people for their support, acknowledging the challenges of ensuring a fair election process. She specifically thanked those who, despite their fears and frustrations, chose to place their trust in her. Sandu emphasized her commitment to serving all citizens, stating: “Moldova, you are victorious! Today, dear Moldovans, you have given a lesson in democracy, worthy of being written in history books. Today, you have saved Moldova” (Sauer,2024). In his post-election remarks, Stoianoglo sought to defend his position and expressed hope that “from now on, we will put an end to the hatred and division imposed on us.” Despite the evident divisions within the country, Sandu pledged to listen to Stoianoglo’s supporters, vowing to foster unity and resilience in the years ahead, which she believes will be pivotal for the future of the Republic of Moldova.

4. Defining Moldova’s path forward

With Maia Sandu’s re-election and a strong pro-European mandate, Moldova is poised to deepen its ties with the European Union (Verseck, 2024). The next steps are likely to focus on accelerating EU integration, including advancing legal and economic reforms to align with EU standards, enhancing trade relations, and securing additional financial and technical support from Brussels (Council of the European Union, 2024). However, the road ahead is full of challenges. Internally, Moldova must address persistent issues such as political corruption, judicial reform, and the need to strengthen democratic institutions, all of which are crucial for meeting EU accession criteria (Erizanu, 2024). Additionally, the government will need to manage the polarized political landscape, as pro-Russian sentiments and disinformation campaigns continue to pose a threat to national cohesion (Kirby, 2024b). Balancing these external aspirations with internal stability will be critical for defining Moldova’s future and ensuring its long-term alignment with Europe.

Parliamentary elections will take place in autumn 2025, and given the recent results of the presidential elections, Russia won’t stop with the attempts to intervene either directly or indirectly in the elections (Sauer, 2024; Verseck, 2024). The main hope for the Kremlin is to force Sandu into a difficult cohabitation with a potentially socialist-led government, as the powers of the government exceed those of the president, which would likely hijack the EU integration process (Erizanu, 2024).

Both the president and the government she supports are under enormous pressure as now expectations are very high. There’s an urgent need to accelerate reform and democratization as this has been only the beginning and the next steps will be increasingly difficult, both because of the internal divisions caused by corruption and a serious cost-of-living crisis and because Russia won’t stop at anything, focusing now on the pressure it can exercise on the legislative  elections in 2025 (Clej, 2024; Sauer, 2024). Ultimately, Moldova’s ability to maintain momentum on its European path will depend on its capacity to implement critical reforms, foster national unity, and withstand external pressures (Verseck, 2024). The next few years will be pivotal in determining whether Moldova can break free from the shadow of Russian influence and secure a stable, prosperous future within the European community.

Sources

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