Trump’s Second Term: Implications for Europe’s Security, Populism, and Economy

Four years after a crowd of insurgents stormed through the halls of the American Congress, claiming the election had been stolen from their hands, Donald Trump is the incumbent resident of the White House. With an election campaign full of twists and turns, the President elect stands at the verge of a crucial mandate, where his decisions will shape the future of the ongoing war in Ukraine—the largest conflict in Europe since the Bosnian War in the 1990s, the rising tensions across the Middle East, and the trade conflict with China. 

The effects of Trump’s re-election will be particularly challenging for Europe. European states, long-standing allies of the United States, have relied on American defensive guarantees since the 1950s. Trump’s political tone has heavily influenced European nationalist populists, such as Marine Le Pen who hopes to secure the French presidency in 2027. Finally, the EU economy, which has thrived on a close partnership with American counterparts, will be put under strain if Trump will enact his proposed tariffs on every import coming into the US.  

European States and the US defensive guarantee

Since the 1950s, European states have relied heavily on American defensive guarantees under the framework of NATO. As the United States became the protector of European states against the looming Soviet threat, the transatlantic bond became the cornerstone of the continent’s security, with American troops stationed across Europe and significant investments in military infrastructure (Kaufman, 2017). Under Trump’s first presidency, however, the relationship between the United States and their European allies faced an unprecedented strain: Trump’s repeated criticisms of NATO, labeling it “obsolete” and pressuring member states to increase defense spending, left many European leaders questioning America’s true commitment to collective defense. The prospect of Trump’s return to the White House puts these concerns again at the forefront of European agendas. With his “America First” approach, Trump could prioritize domestic interests over transatlantic solidarity, potentially leaving Europe vulnerable in a time of an all-time high geopolitical instability.

Europe is currently facing several security challenges: from Russia’s ongoing aggression in Ukraine and its evolving threats of cyber warfare, to rising tensions in the Middle East, European states may wish to reconsider their dependency on American guarantees. A diminished US commitment could compel Europe to bolster its own defense mechanisms, potentially through increased spending or more robust integration within the EU’s Common Security and Defense Policy (Varma, 2024). However, such efforts require time, coordination, and political will, resources that may be limited in the current fragmented European political landscape also because of rising populism.

Influence on European Nationalist Populists

Trump’s political tone and rhetoric have significantly impacted the discourse of European nationalist populists. Marine Le Pen in France has particularly drawn inspiration from Trump’s messaging across the years, particularly his emphasis on sovereignty, anti-immigration policies, and disdain for multilateralism (Galbreath, 2017). Le Pen, who has already gained substantial ground in French politics, is hoping to secure the presidency in 2027, and Trump’s re-election will provide her and other populist leaders with a renewed sense of legitimacy (Golder, 2022), showcasing how nationalist rhetoric can resonate with a broad electorate.

Beyond France, Trump’s influence has reverberated across other European states. In Italy, Giorgia Meloni’s government mirrors many of Trump’s nationalist ideals, from prioritizing domestic interests to challenging EU consensus. Similarly, in Hungary and Poland, leaders like Viktor Orbán and the Law and Justice Party have adopted hardline stances that align with Trump’s worldview. These political actors could employ Trump’s victory as evidence to reinforce their policies and marginalize opposition voices within the political spectrum (Aktas, 2024).

However, Trump’s return also risks deepening divisions across EU member states. As nationalist populists gain momentum, the bloc’s ability to maintain a unified front on critical issues such as climate change, migration, and relations with global powers may weaken. This fragmentation could undermine the EU’s standing on the world stage, making it harder to navigate complex geopolitical challenges (Mudde, 2019).

Economic Strains on the EU

Finally, the EU economy has long benefitted from its close partnership with American counterparts: their robust trade relations and shared investments in technology and innovation, the transatlantic economic bond has been mutually beneficial. However, Trump’s proposed policies, including imposing tariffs on all imports into the US (Popli, 2024), threaten to disrupt this dynamic. During his first term, Trump’s trade policies, particularly characterized by tariffs on steel and aluminum imports (Krugman, 2018), sparked tensions with the EU (Baldwin, 2020). His second term could see an escalation of these measures, targeting industries critical to European economies, such as automotive manufacturing and agriculture. These tariffs would not only strain trade relations but also impact European businesses, dependent on the American market.

Moreover, Trump’s protectionist stance could have negative effects across global supply chains, further increasing economic challenges for the EU. With inflationary pressures and energy crises already burdening European economies, additional trade barriers could push some states toward recession. To counteract these effects, the EU may need to strengthen trade relations with other global partners, such as emerging markets, though such shifts come with their own set of risks and complications. Trump’s policies could also affect transatlantic cooperation on regulatory frameworks, particularly in the tech and digital sectors. Diverging approaches to issues like data privacy and antitrust regulations could hinder collaboration and create uncertainty for businesses operating on both sides of the Atlantic.

Trump’s reelection marks a crucial moment for Europe. From security to political discourse and economic stability, the effects of his presidency will test the resilience and adaptability of the EU. As European leaders will have to confront these challenges, they will be forced to navigate a delicate balance between fostering transatlantic ties and asserting their own strategic autonomy. The next four years will test Europe’s ability to maintain unity and uphold its values in an increasingly polarized global landscape.

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